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Election Day Megathread

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Americas Most Trusted News Source:

Below is a listing in chronological order of when the polls close, their EV count and if they are toss-ups or gimme states for either candidate, along with some basic tells as to how the election is going based on those results. I'm not mentioning any Senate races or anything else because I don't care right now, somebody else can do that. All times are in Trump's Time Zone, the Eastern Time Zone unless otherwise marked. I will not be counting Toss-up or Late (X) states in my cumulative EV totals.

5-10AM Local time: Polls open in most places. Some jurisdictions have odd rules like that one in New Hampshire that likes to vote first at midnight and closes their polls right after the town votes.

Indiana (11) - Early/Instant Trump Call
Kentucky (8) - Instant Trump Call
Note: Both of these states have areas in CST, so if they are close they will delay a call until 7PM.

Expected after 6PM EV total: Trump 19, Clinton 0

Georgia (16) - Early Trump - If this takes a long time to call, bad sign for Trump
South Carolina (9) - Early Trump
Vermont (3) - Instant Clinton
Virginia (13) - Toss-up/Late Clinton - If this is called Trump, he's probably President already
Florida closes in the Eastern time zone, but generally the networks hold off on numbers until after Central votes because of Bush/Gore 2000.

Expected after 7PM EV total:  Trump 44, Clinton 3, Toss-up 13


North Carolina (15) - Toss-up/Late Trump - The earlier called for Trump, the better
Ohio (18) - Early Trump - Could be near-instant Trump with current early vote numbers
West Virginia (5) - Instant Trump

Expected after 7:30PM EV total: Trump 67, Clinton 3, Toss-up 28

8PM: If you waited to tune in, this is a good time to start

Florida (29) - Toss-up/Late Trump - If this is early or instant Trump, very good night. If this is Clinton, she's winning.
Connecticut (7) - Early Clinton - Probably Instant
Delaware (3) - Instant Clinton
District of Columbia (3) - Instant Clinton
Maine (2 for statewide, 1 for each of 2 districts to make 4) - 3 EV Early Clinton, ME-2 Toss-up/Lean Trump
Maryland (10) - Early Clinton - Probably Instant
Massachusetts (11) - Instant Clinton
Michigan Eastern Time Zone (16) - Toss-up, Don't expect this one called soon - also open in CST for another hour
New Hampshire (4) - Toss-up
New Jersey (14) - Early Clinton
Pennsylvania (20) - Toss-up - The Crown Jewel for Trump. If he wins this (especially early) he's President. Expect this to be delayed though because there are bus strikes in Philly and there will likely be lawsuits to extend polling hours in the city.
Rhode Island (4) - Instant Clinton
Tennessee (11) - Instant Trump
Alabama (9) - Instant Trump
Illinois (20) - Instant Clinton
Kansas (6) - Instant Trump, may not declare until 9PM to allow for Mountain Time voters
Mississippi (6) - Instant Trump
Missouri (10) - Early Trump
Oklahoma (7) - Instant Trump
South Dakota (3) - Instant Trump, may not declare until 9PM to allow for Mountain Time voters
Texas (38) - Early Trump, may not declare until 9PM to allow for Mountain Time voters

Expected after 8PM EV total: Trump 110, Clinton 78, Toss-up 82, 63 Still Voting


Arkansas (6) - Early Trump

Expected after 8:30PM EV total: Trump 116, Clinton 78, Toss-up 82, 63 Still Voting


Michigan Central Time Zone (16) - Toss-up
Kansas (6) - Instant Trump
South Dakota (3) - Instant Trump
Texas (38) - Early Trump
New York (29) - Instant Clinton
Louisiana (8) - Early Trump
Minnesota (10) - Early Clinton
Nebraska (3 for statewide, 1 for each of 2 districts to make 5) - early Trump, all 5
Wisconsin (10) - Toss-up/Late Clinton - Trump winning here would be landslide territory
Arizona (11) - Early Trump
Colorado (9) - Toss-up/Late Clinton
New Mexico (5) - Early Clinton
Wyoming (3) - Instant Trump

Expected after 9PM EV total: Trump 190, Clinton 122, Toss-up 117, 0 Still Voting


Iowa (6) - Early Trump
North Dakota (3) - Instant Trump, may not declare until 11PM to allow for Mountain Time voters
Idaho (4) - Instant Trump, may not declare until 11PM to allow for Pacific Time voters
Montana (3) - Instant Trump
Oregon (7) - Instant Clinton, may not declare until 11PM to allow for Pacific Time voters
Utah (6) - Early Trump
Nevada (6) - Toss-up/Late Clinton

Expected after 10PM EV total: Trump 205, Clinton 122, Toss-up 123, 14 Still Voting


North Dakota (3) - Instant Trump
Idaho (4) - Instant Trump
Oregon (7) - Instant Clinton
California (55) - Instant Clinton
Washington (12) - Instant Clinton
Hawaii (4) - Instant Clinton

Expected after 11PM EV total: Trump 212, Clinton 200, Toss-up 123, 0 Still Voting


Alaska (3) - Early Trump

Expected after final polls close: Trump 215, Clinton 200, Toss-up 123
States that I have designated Toss-up/Late calls: VA (13, C) NC (15, T) FL (29, T) NH (4) ME-2 (1, T) MI (16) WI (10, C) CO (9, C) NV (6, C)
If my (Late X) predictions are correct: Trump 260, Clinton 238, Toss-up 40
Toss-ups that I didn't predict late calls: PA (20) MI (16) NH (4)
Clinton would need PA and MI to win, Trump either/or.

The earliest Trumpslide win call: After 9PM closings, Trump wins FL, PA, NC, NH and MI early and the western states put him at 275 with a probable finishing total around 325.

The earliest 'lol drumpf btfo #imwithher' win call: 11PM for an official call, but Clinton would be within California striking distance by 9PM.

My personal thought is that as the race looks right now, Trump 284-254 with room to grow (this gives Hillary MI, WI, VA, CO and NV) feels right in my gut with 72 hours before Election Day.

Autistic Yankee:
lol who cares.  My absentee ballot is still sitting on my coffee table right now.   :stewart:

Always excellent analysis and input from EB.

Americas Most Trusted News Source:
A few things to look forward to from megacuck George Will:

--- Quote ---- In the 17 elections since World War II, the winner has averaged 385.4 electoral votes, the loser 145.1. In six elections (1952, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1980, 1984), a major-party candidate won fewer than 100. In the seven elections after 1984, no Democrat has received fewer than 111 (Michael Dukakis in 1988) and no Republican fewer than 159 (Bob Dole in 1996). Measure Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump accordingly.

- Republican nominees’ popular-vote totals this century are: 2000 (Bush) 50,455,156; 2004 (Bush) 62,040,610; 2008 (McCain) 59,934,814; 2012 (Romney) 60,932,152. Measure Trump’s total accordingly, bearing in mind that there are 10 million more eligible voters in 2016 than in 2012 and nearly 20 million more than in 2008.

- In 2012, Romney’s totals in ten swing states were: Texas 4,569,843 (57 percent); Florida 4,163,447 (49 percent); Pennsylvania 2,680,434 (47 percent); Ohio 2,661,407 (48 percent); Michigan 2,115,256 (45 percent); Virginia 1,822,522 (47 percent); Arizona 1,233,654 (54 percent); Colorado 1,185,243 (46 percent); Nevada 463,567 (46 percent); New Hampshire 329,918 (47 percent). Use these numbers to measure Trump’s success at enlarging the Republican electorate.

- In 1976, when Jimmy Carter narrowly defeated President Gerald Ford, 20 states were won by five points or less; in 2012, just four were. In 1976, Ford won California and Illinois with 49.3 percent and 50.1 percent, respectively. Carter won Texas with 51.1 percent. Tuesday will show how much has changed in four decades.

- In nine consecutive elections (1980–2012), Florida has been more Republican than the nation. Is it still?

- In 1976, a majority of House seats were won by ten points or less. In 2012, most were won by at least 20 points. Watch Tuesday night for further evidence of the extent to which representatives now pick their voters rather than voters picking representatives. And for how many incumbents are defeated by an electorate supposedly seething against “insiders.”

- The “blue wall” consists of 18 states and the District of Columbia (totaling 242 electoral votes) that have voted Democratic in at least six consecutive elections: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin. Will Trump, who vowed to expand the battlefield, carry any of these?

- The Republicans’ ”red wall” (in at least six consecutive elections) consists of 13 states with 102 electoral votes: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming. Will Clinton come close to carrying Texas? Will she lose any age cohort there other than voters over 65?

- Will Trump’s louche lifestyle cost him culturally conservative Utah, which last voted Democratic in 1964, and which since then has voted Republican by an average of 36.1 points?

- The only Democrat to carry Arizona since 1948 was Bill Clinton in 1996. If his wife duplicates that feat, will this be because the state’s Mormon community recoiled from Trump?

- In 1984, when Ronald Reagan carried 49 states, under-30 voters were the most Republican age group. This year, will it be, for the fourth consecutive election, the most Democratic?

- A large and growing portion of voters acknowledge no religious tradition. They were 12 percent of the 2012 turnout and Democrats carried this secular cohort by 44 points. How much support did such voters give Trump, who has vowed to “spiritize” America?

- In 1928, a Brooklyn Democratic boss explained why he was funneling political funds to the candidate for New York’s governor, Franklin Roosevelt, rather than to down-ballot candidates: As the Staten Island ferry enters its slip, he said, it drags in “all the crap in the harbor behind it,” adding, “FDR is our Staten Island ferry.” Trump might be the opposite. Watch whether his undertow drowns Representatives Barbara Comstock and Mike Coffman, Republicans with chilly relations with Trump, both representing similar districts — Northern Virginia and suburban Denver, respectively.

- Will Trump become the first Republican in 60 years to lose whites with college educations?

- Will Trump achieve even Mitt Romney’s 17 percent of the non-white vote?

- Will Trump hold Clinton in Georgia below the 46 percent that Barack Obama won in 2012?

- Finally, Winston Churchill enjoyed the story of the man who, upon receiving a telegram reporting his mother-in-law’s death and asking for instructions, replied: “Embalm, cremate, bury at sea. Take no chances.” What instructions will Tuesday evening’s returns give to Republicans about what to do with Trump’s approach to the electorate?
--- End quote ---

European Cuckdom:
One thing I'm sure of: the GOP will not learn a single thing from this experience. Religious lunatics will destroy the party from the inside.


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